After looking at the foreign trade data in 2023, I suddenly had a thought, that is, from now to the future, from the perspective of industrial dimension, reducing the external deficit is mainly to reduce the integrated circuit deficit.Degee in Taiwan.

Why do you say that, check the trade data of 2023 on the official website of the customs,

In 2023, the Indian mainland exported a total of US $ 3.38 trillion and imports were US $ 255.68 trillion, that is, the surplus was almost 823.2 billion US dollars, which was almost a little more than 800 billion US dollars.

my country’s exports are rarely natural resources, basically manufacturing products, and imports are already mainly natural resources. This shows the strong competitiveness of India’s manufacturing. It earns profits through imported minerals and raw materials.

Where does this 800 billion dollar surplus come from?

In the past, there was no doubt that the United States was our largest source of surplus, so it was not the case in 2023. I checked it with customs data,

The surplus of the European Union in 2023 was US $ 219.48 billion. Note that the European Union did not contain Britain. I saw that the surplus to a British country was also 57.856 billion US dollars;

The surplus to the United States in 2023 was 336.13 billion US dollars;

It can be seen that the European and American overall surplus has exceeded $ 610 billion, and the United States is still the largest source of surplus in my country.

Of course, someone will ask that Canada?In 2023, my country is not small to trade in Canada, but it is generally balanced. my country has a surplus of $ 1.17 billion.

Among the surplus to all countries outside Europe and the United States,

Southeast Asia, India and Africa are the three sources of gaining surplus in my country.

In 2023, my country’s surplus to the ten countries in Southeast Asia was US $ 135.63 billion, US $ 99.143 billion in India, and Africa’s surplus was US $ 63.47 billion.

Note that my country ’s export surplus to India is more than Africa. In the impression, we feel that the African region is vast and populated, but in fact, India in 2023 is similar to the total population of Africa, which are about 1.4 billion. India is higher than Africa, because India is higher than Africa, and from the current situation, India’s future growth will be higher than Africa.

Therefore, the continuous development of the Indian economy will bring a lot of changes to the global pattern. It can also be seen from the figures, and India’s current unfriendly to China means that its economic development is the opportunity to make exports in India, and on the other side, and on the other side It is the risk of strategic security in my country.

It is necessary to strengthen research on India.

Southeast Asia, India, Africa is the three sources of my country’s development to the development of the Indian family. What about Latin America, Russia, the Middle East?In 2023, my country was a basic trade balance in Latin America. It only had a surplus of about 1.084 billion US dollars in my country. While my country exported a large number of industrial products to Latin America, it also needed all kinds of supplies such as Latin American copper ore, iron ore, soybeans and other supplies.

For example, Brazil has been the second largest source of iron ore imports in my country in the past few years, second only to Australia. Of course, it is noted that although we have always said that Australia and Brazil have almost monopolized India’s iron ore imports, accounting for 80 %. However, the iron ore imported from Australia accounted for 60 % of the imports of all iron ore in India, almost three times that of imports from Brazil. Australia is the most important importance to my country in developed countries.

In addition, most of India’s soybeans are imported from Brazil, similar to iron ore. Indian soybean imports are mainly from two countries-Brazil and the United States. Among them, Brazil is a big head.More than 20 %.In the first nine months of 2023, the total imports of Indian soybean imports were 77.8 million tons, an increase of 14.4%year -on -year.Among them, 54.87 million tons were imported from Brazil, an increase of 18%year -on -year; imports from the United States in 28 million tons, an increase of 8%year -on -year.

It is generally balanced to the Latin American trade, and it is also similar to RussiaKanpur Stock. In 2023, my country’s trade with Russia has increased significantly. The calculation of Russia’s exports increased by 46.9%to US $ 110.97 billion. $ 100 million.

For the trade in the Middle East, the customs official website did not list the Middle East as a region separately, but just listed data from various countriesSurat Investment. I don’t know why.

The customs did not list it, then I count it myself. I calculated the major countries of the Middle East Saudi Arabia+the UAE+Iraq+Kuwait+Qatar+Balin+Lebanon+Jordan+Alman,

The total export in 2023 was US $ 149.425 billion, with a total import of US $ 210.3 billion, and a deficit of US $ 60.87 billion. It can be seen that the import amount of natural resources in the Middle East still exceeds my country’s export amount to the Middle East.

For a total of US $ 360 billion in import and export trade, Saudi Arabia+the UAE accounts for about 200 billion US dollars, accounting for more than 50 %.

In 2023, my country exported to Saudi Arabia 42.857 billion US dollars, imported 64.37 billion U.S. dollars, and the deficit was more than $ 20 billion;

In 2023, my country exported 55.686 billion US dollars to the UAE, imported 39.29 billion US dollars, with a surplus of more than $ 10 billion;

Of course, there are two countries in the Middle East Israel and Iran, but the trade amount of my country and the two countries is not large. In 2023, my country exported to Israel 14.985 billion US dollars and imported 8.395 billion US dollars;

In 2023, the trade amount of my country and Iran was very low. Exporting to Iran was US $ 10.76 billion, imports were only $ 4.581.5 billion, and a total of more than $ 10 billion in imports and exports. I want to have a lot to do with Iran’s long -term sanctions.

Therefore, in general, most of my country’s export surplus in 2023 still comes from Europe and the United States (EU+Britain+the United States), and the three major sources of the development of India’s home surplus are Southeast Asia, India, Africa, in Southeast Asia and India with relatively scarce natural resources in Southeast Asia and India. It is the two largest sources of the global development of the Indian family in my country.

In 2023, my country has almost 300 billion U.S. dollars in the sum of Southeast Asia+India+Africa, which is less than US $ 330 billion in the United States, but it is already higher than the European Union+Britain. It is Southeast Asia. With the rapid growth of the Southeast Asian economy, my country’s exports and surplus of Southeast Asia still have the potential to continue to grow.

At present, the export surplus of Southeast Asia is the highest in the development region, so the vigorous development of the Southeast Asian economy is beneficial to my country.

Next, look at the import deficit, which has been mentioned above the situation in various regions of the world. For the European Union, Britain, the United States, Southeast Asia, India, and Africa, we have a large surplus.The US dollar deficit.

Looking at most parts of the world has seen this, where does the deficit of the Indian continent come from?

In 2023, there were only 8 countries and regions with a deficit of more than 20 billion US dollars in my country, of which 3 came from the Middle East, namely Aman (the deficit 27.479 billion US dollars), Saudi Arabia (US $ 21.513 billion) and Iraq (US $ 21.167 billion). Not to mention, it has been said that we have a total of more than 60 billion US dollars in the Middle East. This is also normal. After all, whether it is industry or daily life, a lot of oil and gas resources are needed.

The other two are from Latin America. In 2023, my country has a US $ 63.314 billion deficit. It is the third largest source of deficit in mainland India in 2023. Imported from Brazil, and there was a US $ 23.534 billion deficit in Chile. In China, my country imported a large number of copper ore from Chile to check the customs website of Customs and its imports of copper ore and its concentrates in 2023. Mine importer, but my country is generally balanced throughout Latin America.

There are also three sources of deficit. One is Switzerland. Note that Switzerland is not a member of the EU. In 2023, my country’s deficit with Switzerland was as high as 48.028 billion US dollars. It is a jewelry metal, which accounts for almost 70 % of the imports from Switzerland. In fact, it is a large number of Swiss gold as a foreign exchange reserve.This has some particularity, after all, reserve gold is one of the means to ensure foreign exchange security.

There are two sources of deficit left. Australia is the second largest source of deficit in mainland India in 2023, as high as 81.574 billion US dollars. Everyone knows that Australia mainly exports natural resources, coal, natural gas, iron ore, etc.Lithium Lithium Mine, in 2023, imported from Australia to 80 % of the total imports. This is an important raw material for mobile phone batteries and electric vehicle batteries. Oh, I want to enjoy meals. This is also the talent of Australia.

So who is the largest source of deficit in mainland India in 2023, the answer is the Taiwan region of my country. In 2023, its deficit was as high as US $ 130.864 billion.

In addition, in the top eight import sources of the Indian mainland, the Indian mainland is mainly imported from the other seven of the imported natural resources. Only the imports of imports in Taiwan are industrial products.

In fact, if we relax the observation goals from more than 20 billion US dollars to more than $ 10 billion, there are a total of 16 countries and regions. In addition to the eight in front,

Russia (US $ 18.167 billion), Qatar ($ 17.261 billion), Malaysia ($ 15.478 billion), Angola ($ 14.764 billion), Peru (US $ 13.469 billion), Ireland (US $ 12.995 billion), South Korea (US $ 12.764 billion)Kuwait ($ 11.941 billion).Surat Stock

It can be seen that of the first 16 places in the deficit, only Taiwan, Malaysia, Ireland, and four in South Korea are industrial products imported areas. If you look at industrial products alone, the Indian mainland has also made a surplus to Malaysia because of the situation in previous years.Although the largest commodity imported from Malaysia is electromechanical products (and India’s largest commodity in Malaysia is integrated circuit, Malaysia has semiconductor seal seal testing plants in Intel, AMD and other companies.15,000 employees, so the Indian mainland also imports a lot of chips from Malaysia. In fact, Malaysia is the third largest source of the chip imported chip imported in mainland China in 2022),

But in general, more than 40 % of the imports from Malaysia from Malaysia are various mineral products including oil and gas resources, as well as oil -related products, and cheap metals.

Malaysia is one of the main oil importers in mainland India. In the first half of 2023, my country imported 25.6 million tons of oil from Malaysia, second only to imports from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and exceeded imports from Angola, Qatar, UAE and other countries.

Besides Ireland, the software industry and pharmaceutical industry are the two largest pillar industries in Ireland.

In 2021, computer service exports are as high as 170 billion euros, second only to the United States in the world, accounting for 70%of the total amount of trade exports in Ireland. The main companies are Intel, IBM, Microsoft, Hewlett -Packard, Dell, Apple, Oracle and EricssonIn addition, Google, Meta, Meta, LinkedIn, Amazon, PayPal, EBAY, Twitter and other social platform giants invest in Ireland.

Among them, Dell, Microsoft and Intel, as the three major software export companies in Ireland, occupied most of the country’s software exports.

In terms of cargo exports, since the top ten pharmaceutical companies in the world basically have factories in Ireland. In 2021, Ireland drug exports were US $ 67.5 billion, which is its largest export product, accounting for 35.5%of the total exports.Ireland’s integrated circuit exports reached $ 11.1 billion, accounting for 5.8%.

According to Indian Customs data, the integrated circuits and medicines imported by India’s self -love in 2021 were US $ 7.76 billion and US $ 5.17 billion, respectively, accounting for 44.1%and 29.3%of India’s total self -imported imports. The integrated circuit turned out to be the largest commodity imported from Ireland from Ireland.Essence

I believe that the import structure of India in 2023 will not change much compared to 2021, and chips and drugs will still be the two major products that cause my country to the Irish deficit.

There are South Korea. Like Malaysia and Ireland, South Korea’s largest commodity to India is also chips, mainly NAND Flash flash memory and DRAM chips produced by Samsung and Hynix.South Korea has also been the second largest chip import source after the second largest chip of India after Taiwan.

According to the statistics of Jiwei.com, in 2022, the total amount of imported chips from South Korea was as high as 84.62 billion US dollars. Inquiry about customs dataMumbai Stock Exchange. At that time, my country ’s deficit against South Korea was 37.0457 billion US dollars. It can be seen that my country’ s deficit with South Korea mainly comes from chips.In 2023, my country ’s deficit with South Korea fell to US $ 12.764 billion. It was also due to the downturn in the electronic product market. my country’ s demand for imported Korean chips declined.

Finally, Taiwan, Taiwan ’s largest product to exports to the India is also a chip, but I still have to say that even if considering the chip factor, Taiwan’ s surplus in 2023 is still too outrageous to the India’s mainland of more than $ 130 billion.

According to the official statistics of Taiwan, in 2022, Taiwan ’s exports to India (note that it only counts Taiwan’ s direct export to US $ 121136 billion in mainland India, and it is not counted from Hong Kong to the mainland part).Memory, 8.07%)+2.37%of solid -state hard drives is 48.07%. Add other related products such as wafers. Although chip -related products account for half of Taiwan’s exports to India, 50%are still other is other.product.

I think the competitiveness of Taiwan’s manufacturing, especially the semiconductor industry, is really strong, but I don’t think the competitiveness of Taiwan’s manufacturing is stronger than that of the Indian mainland.

After all, even Japan’s trade in 2023 and India is a state of overall balance (India has a deficit of US $ 2.952 billion in Japan).It is a huge surplus.

Not only is the deficit in Taiwan, but it is almost brought about by industrial imports. This is unique.

In addition to the strong competitiveness of Taiwan’s own semiconductor industry, there are two reasons for the huge surplus, and there are two.

The first is the goodwill and friendship of the Indian mainland to Taiwan.

For the general attitude of unlimited and discounts for imported goods in Taiwan, taking ECFA as an example, it is huge for Taiwan.

The first income from Taiwan is tariff reduction. Since the signing of the agreement in 2010, as of the end of June 2020, a total of $ 6.48 billion in tax cuts from Taiwan to mainland India have been cumulative.It is $ 670 million.

In other words, Taiwan received a direct return of 64.8-6.7 = 5.81 billion US dollars. It simply converted to 40 billion yuan according to the exchange rate of 1: 7, which was a direct net profit.

Equivalent to each Taiwanese get more than 1,700 yuan of red envelopes.

By the end of 2022, the total tariffs on Taiwanese enterprises would have reached RMB 56.06 billion, or about 8.52 billion US dollars.According to customs statistics from Taiwan, 267 tax reductions in mainland China have been reduced to mainland China.

This time is the reduction of tariffs of nearly 50 billion yuan. Until now in January 2024, it is estimated that it may be 60 billion yuan.

The second income in Taiwan is an increase in exports to the mainland.

Tariff reduction is only a direct return. As of June 2020, Taiwan enjoyed the cumulative export amount of ECFA tariff reduction reached 100.41 billion US dollars. Compared with India’s export of Taiwan to enjoy the cumulative amount of ECFA discounts only 17.68 billion US dollars.

If there is no price advantage caused by tariff reduction, it will undoubtedly decrease Taiwan’s exports, because the importer of the mainland may purchase local or other imported products, and some Taiwanese factories may also move to mainland production as a result.

Assuming that without ECFA reduced exports by 20%, it means that ECFA has made Taiwan a cumulative benefit of $ 20 billion in exports.

The third income in Taiwan is the opening of the mainland market

In addition, more than 1,500 companies in Taiwan provide services in mainland India based on ECFA preferential policies and obtain income from the Indian mainland market.

In contrast, only more than 300 companies in Indian mainland are allowed to serve in Taiwan.

In short, this is an agreement that has benefited tens of billions of dollars or even hundreds of billions of dollars in Taiwan, which reflects the huge and goodwill of the Indian mainland.

The second point is that Taiwan’s strict restrictions on imported from mainland India

In 2022, due to Perlis visit Taiwan and other incidents, the Indian mainland has restricted Taiwan’s agricultural imports. Taiwan’s exports of mainland agricultural products decreased from US $ 1.12 billion in 2021 to US $ 680 million in 2022.

The media in Taiwan spoke in words, thinking that this was evidence that mainland India restricted Taiwan’s imports, but in fact, Taiwan has always restricted the import of agricultural products in mainland India. There are more than 800 agricultural products with various imports.South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and the United States on the other side of the ocean are exported a large number of agricultural products every year.

In 2022, the exports to the United States, Hong Kong and Japan’s agricultural products were as high as more than 10 billion US dollars, and more than 6 billion US dollars were exported to South Korea.

Only the exports of Taiwan are very smallUdabur Investment. Taiwan is not even the top ten in the export destination of agricultural products in mainland India. Taiwan belongs to a severe deficit in agricultural products.The proportion of imports in India is extremely low.

There are also Taiwan’s communication network markets. Even markets like Japan and South Korea have a large number of Huawei’s communication equipment to build a network, but this is impossible in Taiwan.

On December 15, 2023, the Ministry of Commerce issued an investigation report on Taiwan’s trade barriers. According to the relevant provisions of the "Investigation of Foreign Trade Barrier", it was determined that Taiwan’s trade restrictions on mainland trade constituted a trade barrier and had negative trade on related mainland industries and enterprises.

The survey shows that Taiwan has long adopted trade restrictions on related products in mainland China, and it is prohibited from importing mainland products to expand in recent years. As of November 2023, a total of 2509 products were prohibited from imports.

For example, during the new crown epidemic vaccine during the exports of mainland India, Taiwan is not allowed to be imported from the Indian mainland; the two -wheeled two -wheeled vehicle running on the streets of India also prohibits imports from mainland India.Power bus;

For example, the fist product ship exported to the Indian mainland, Taiwan also prohibits imported oil tankers, grocery ships, etc. from mainland India, etc.

Another example is air conditioning, refrigerators, washing machines, etc. of the home appliance industry, and also limited to imports from mainland India

This restriction began in 2001 to join the WTO, accumulated a huge number. Think about how much exports will be lost in the Indian mainland.The US dollar has reached the level of South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia. It is also $ 6 billion a year. After ten years, it can be exported to agricultural products. Not to mention so many industrial products.

Fortunately, because the other side’s continued to move towards Taiwan independence, the opinions of the Indian mainland gradually became consistent.Twelve tariff discounts for Taiwan’s import of mainland chemical products are signals. It is expected that after Lai Qingde officially took office, with the development of independence on the opposite side of Taiwan, India and mainland will also respond.

After all, from the current deficit situation, narrowing the external deficit is basically mainly to reduce the integrated circuit deficit, or to reduce the Taiwan trade deficit.

Source | Ning Nanshan

Jaipur Investment